TROPICAL LOW UPDATE #3 Posted: 7:45 pm EST on Thursday 23 March 2017
-- NEW UPDATE -- -- PLEASE READ VERY CAREFULLY! -- -- PLEASE SHARE THIS INFORMATION AROUND --
-- DISCLAIMER -- This forecast is presented based on currently available information, which may change slightly.
Please ensure you're keeping up-to-date with the latest predictions and advice here from our local and qualified team at Mackay & District Weather Updates.
-- BOM ADVICE -- Firstly, the BOM are now in agreement that this cyclone will develop and move towards Queensland next week.
They have advised this afternoon that: "Conditions are favourable for this system to develop, and the probability of it forming into a tropical cyclone will steadily increase into the weekend. This system is likely to make landfall on the north tropical Queensland coast early next week."
We expect the Bureau of Meteorology to start issuing Tropical Cyclone Watches tomorrow afternoon or early Saturday.
-- CURRENT CROSSING PREDICTIONS -- Computer models are now in tight agreement that this system will develop in the next 48 hours and track towards the Queensland coast.
Based on the information available from all major global models, over the last 3 runs, we have included a HIGH RISK ZONE and a MODERATE RISK ZONE on our attached map.
The HIGH RISK ZONE represents an area where over 75% of the most recent computer model forecasts have forecast the cyclone to cross.
The MODERATE RISK ZONE represents an alternative area where some modelling has forecast the system possibly affecting.
For example, of 18 different forecasts analysed this afternoon, 15 of these were forecasting the system crossing the coast in the HIGH RISK ZONE.
2 were predicting the system would cross in the NORTHERN MODERATE RISK ZONE (Cairns region), and 1 was predicting the system would cross in the SOUTHERN MODERATE RISK ZONE (Mackay region).
-- BOM PREDICTIONS -- Of interest, current official BOM predictions show the system crossing the coast in the vicinity of Townsville. The BOM don't currently have this displayed publicly just yet.
-- CURRENT INTENSITY PREDICTIONS -- Computer modelling is in a relatively good agreement now of the forecast that this system develops into a Category 3 or Category 4 severe system.
We'll be keeping a close eye on this.
-- NAME OF THE CYCLONE -- Originally we were expecting this system to take the "Caleb" name, but a small low over in WA has developed up today and taken that name.
This system will now be named Debbie.
-- WHEN WILL IT CROSS THE COAST? -- Current predictions have pushed the coastal crossing date right up to Monday afternoon.
-- PREDICTION INCLUDED ON THE IMAGE -- The prediction included on the image is based on information from the last 3 model runs from the world's 3 most reliable computer models.
-- WHAT TO DO -- Now is the time to start seriously considering what action you'll need to take to prepare for the cyclone, especially for people inside the HIGH RISK ZONE.
Consider what you may need to do if you lose power for an extended period of time, and how you may prepare your home and property for the cyclone threat.
Listen out for official Bureau of Meteorology advice, which is expected to be issued tomorrow.
-- NOTE -- Once the Bureau of Meteorology's advice is issued it will be posted here ASAP.
“Picasso” came within hours of being put to sleep. But thanks to an unbreakable bond with his brother, the world is finally discovering how beautiful he really is…
After being born with a noticeable facial deformity where his snout twists to the right and his jaw to the left, Picasso’s breeders decided that euthanasia was the only option for him and left him at an animal shelter.
Coincidentally, the family that adopted his brother, Pablo, surrendered him to the same shelter after they decided they couldn’t manage a pup that was just too playful. The plight of the two brothers caught the attention of “Luvable Dog Rescue” who decided to reunite the pair and ensure they find a home where they can take on the world together.
But first, that brotherly bond faces its first big test. Picasso is booked in for life changing dental surgery that will hopefully deliver him a pain free life and a whole lot of reasons to smile again. I’ll be sure to let you know how he goes…
The Bioluminescence is back... just near Penguin on Tassie's north-west coast this weekend :)
Thanks to Brett Chatwin who says: "One of the most unbelievable things to witness with your own eyes. Storm clouds made an awesome back drop as well."
Wouldn't it be cool to have a flashlight at your fingertips whenever you need one? No more fumbling for your car keys in the dark, or trying to navigate over uneven terrain at dusk.
Though humans can't create our own light, some animals do, in a process called bioluminescence. Fireflies are perhaps the best known example, though many other species are bioluminescent, including glow worms, anglerfish, and octopus. Even some plants, such as mushrooms and other fungi, are bioluminescent. The biological light, or bioluminescence, in the waves is the product of marine microbes called phytoplankton and as you can see, it's stunning! #Tasmania
I've had a few operations in my time, and I seem to get more nervous each time. Today's procedure is minor and quick, and hopefully will make a big difference to my quality of life. I think it is time to 'suck it up princess' and have a cup of calm down. It will be over before I know it. I'll check back in later today. XX Connie
To celebrate the release of the NEW Dometic CFX WiFi fridge freezer range by Waeco we are giving a CFX50 WiFi fridge freezer away to one lucky winner! Available in store and online now! Check out the range here! http://bit.ly/2li3OeQ
To enter, simply... 1. 'Like' this post. 2. Tag a mate and tell us your number one camping hack/tip!
We'll announce the winner on Friday the 3rd March.
Let’s all be honest here, Monday mornings suck. So to help us all get over the suckiness and the morning mourning (lol) of the weekend that has come and gone too quickly, we’re doing half price ALL DRINKS that are ordered by 12pm!
Offer only valid 20/03/17 until 12pm. Not valid with app orders or any other offer including Vibe. Must show or mention offer in store to redeem.
I met Gen when our daughters were put together in kindy together.
Apart from being particularly lovely Gen seemed like any other caring mum.
But later I found out that she had a story, a bloody big one.
When she was nearly 4 years old Gen was sexually abused by her mothers partner for roughly 3 years. He would wake her in the middle of the night, telling her that wearing knickers to bed was "dirty" and that she needed to be showered, then make her shower or bath with him using a variety of punishments, rituals, tortures, oral sex and molestation. And send her back to bed, curled up, wet and shivering. This was her bedtime routine for 3 years.
It took Gen 14 years to tell anyone about the ordeal, and she did well because the average time somebody keep abuse to themselves is 22 years.
You see research shows that the feeling people struggle to express the most is shame.
This baby grew to believe him, that she was dirty and to be blamed solely for the late night showers. She was frozen in fear and therefor compliant and scared of further humiliation and abuse.
Gen wouldn't be blamed for keeping her past quiet, she wouldn't be blamed for going on to have an unhealthy opinion towards men or sex, but instead Gen decided to spend her entire life preventing other children from this kind of horror and is now a Child Safety advocate and child sexual abuse Trauma specialist.
Statistics tell us that a child is most likely to be abused between the ages of 3 to 8 and children are shockingly 90%-96% more likely to be abused by someone the child knows and trusts.
Gen goes to schools and she teaches children about protective behaviours, she gives children a language to talk about something that they are completely silenced in. And most importantly she tells the children a mild version of her story. This is what brings children to her after her talks, this is where she gets informed by sweet kids who haven't been able to tell anyone that this is happening to them too, because they can relate to Gen and to quote a Rene Brown, "shame cannot survive Empathy"
You would be utterly shocked if you knew how many children were holding onto these secrets.
To sit with Gen is inspiring beyond belief, she is caring and calm and 100% dedicated to keeping kids safe.
Just another warrior Queen turning her pain into power 💗💗